The epidemic we already know how to stop

September 23, 2025 by Nikolaj Gilbert and Dr. Soumya Swaminathan

Forty-one million lives—and trillions of dollars in productivity—are lost each year to noncommunicable diseases, such as heart disease, diabetes, and cancer. We already have the tools to prevent and treat them. All that’s missing is the will to act.

Photo: A health worker participates in a training on noncommunicable diseases. More than 400 health workers in Ghana received such training through PATH-supported projects and programs.

A health worker participates in a training on noncommunicable diseases. More than 400 health workers in Ghana received such training through PATH-supported projects and programs. Photo: PATH.

It isn’t airborne.

It won’t dominate headlines overnight.

But it’s quietly killing more than 41 million people each year—more than all infectious diseases combined. It’s hitting the world’s poorest communities hardest. Seven in ten of those deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries.

We’re talking about noncommunicable diseases (NCDs), such as heart disease, diabetes, cancers, and chronic respiratory diseases.

NCDs are the leading cause of death and disability worldwide, and yet, less than 2 percent of global health funding is spent on preventing or treating them. Most countries spend far less than what is needed to effectively address them.

This mismatch doesn’t just cost too many lives. It also costs around $2 trillion a year in health care and lost productivity, prolonging the cycle of poverty for many families.

This crisis is unfolding in plain sight. But unlike a new virus, we don’t need to discover new solutions. We already have them.

What we need is the will to act.

This starts with investing more. Governments can increase health budgets through creative financing, such as taxing tobacco, alcohol, and sugary drinks or redirecting fossil fuel subsidies. Just 0.25 percent of fossil fuel subsidies could fund nearly the entire global NCD response.

We must also invest smarter. This is how:

First, prevent what we can. By addressing risk factors like unhealthy diets, air pollution, physical inactivity, and tobacco use, we can prevent some diseases before they start.

Second, find the people who don’t know they’re sick. In many countries, most people living with chronic conditions have never been diagnosed. One review found that between 56 and 69 percent of adults with major cardiovascular risk factors—like high blood pressure, high cholesterol, or diabetes—remain undiagnosed. Earlier screening and diagnosis, paired with access to care dramatically improves survival rates.

Third, make treatment affordable and available. One in three people worldwide lack access to essential medicines and diagnostic tools. In the poorest regions, it’s one in two. Even where treatments exist, they're often priced out of reach. Make essential products available to more people through advocacy for fairer pricing, regional, pooled purchasing, and increased local manufacturing.

Finally, build primary health care systems that treat the whole person. Rather than a separate clinic for every disease, a single provider should offer bundled care for multiple conditions along with coordinated follow-up.

We know this works. In the Philippines, excise taxes on tobacco have substantially reduced the prevalence of smoking and the additional revenue is making health care accessible to the poorest groups. And in Ethiopia, by training community health workers and integrating digital tools for streamlined care, the government is bringing health services to more people.

The payoff is extraordinary. Every dollar spent on proven interventions yields a sevenfold return in saved lives, productivity, and avoided costs. According to the World Bank, a minimum package of NCD interventions would prevent at least 150 million deaths across all low- and middle-income countries by 2050—8 million prevented deaths in that year alone—adding more than US$3 trillion to the global economy.

Ahead of the 80th UN General Assembly and UN High-Level Meeting on NCDs, leaders have a historic opportunity to confront the quiet epidemic that claims 41 million lives each year. The solutions are ready and proven. What’s needed now is partnership and follow-through. Addressing noncommunicable diseases isn’t only a matter of saving lives—it’s about protecting families, strengthening economies, and building healthier futures for every community. The deadliest epidemic of our time is solvable, if we choose to solve it together.