Modelling Meningococcal Meningitis in the African Meningitis Belt
The authors of this article, published in Epidemiology and Infection, used deterministic compartmental models to investigate how well simple model structures with seasonal forcing were able to qualitatively capture patterns of meningococcal meningitis disease incidence. They showed that the complex and irregular timing of epidemics could be caused by the interaction of temporary immunity conferred by carriage of the bacteria together with seasonal changes in the transmissibility of infection. This suggests that population immunity is an important factor to include in models attempting to predict meningitis epidemics.
Author(s): Irving TJ, Blyuss KB, Colijn C, Trotter CL
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Citation: Irving TJ, Blyuss KB, Colijn C, Trotter CL. Modelling Meningococcal Meningitis in the African Meningitis Belt. Epidemiology and Infection. 2012;140(5):897-905.