Malaria modeling predicts which interventions will be most effective in a targeted region. |
Using models to strengthen malaria control planning
Mathematical models are powerful tools that can be used to help control malaria and other infectious diseases. A mathematical model works by putting both the drivers of the disease and existing and new control interventions into mathematical formulas that are based on region-specific health systems settings. These formulas are then used to model on-the-ground scenarios to compare interventions and predict potential impacts on transmission, morbidity, mortality, and costs.
In 2003, the Swiss Tropical Institute (STI) began a malaria modeling project that was initially intended to compare the potential impact of a comprehensive range of malaria interventions in areas of high transmission. Since its inception, STI has run models to determine the sustainability and impact of intermittent preventive treatment in infants and, in 2006, began partnering with MACEPA to use data obtained from Zambia’s malaria indicator surveys and other sources to help guide the design of the country’s national malaria control program.
STI is also currently working in partnership with the PATH Malaria Vaccine Initiative to compare the viability of potential malaria vaccine candidates and, in late 2009, hopes to begin working on models of indoor residual spraying and insecticide-treated bednet use to understand how best to sustain malaria control efforts in regions that have already achieved scale-up, like Zambia.
The ultimate goal of the project is to refine the malaria models for general use; in a few years, this tool will be available as a simple, user-friendly, open access resource that program planners will be able to use without any additional training. As such, the malaria modeling project has the potential to put powerful tools in the hands of those who need them the most, thus strengthening malaria control planning worldwide.
Photo: Swiss Tropical Institute.